New crisis wave in Kazakhstan depends on U.S. elections16 октября 2012, 00:52
The next financial crisis in Kazakhstan and Russia depends on the presidential elections in the U.S., prominent economist, professor of the Finance Academy of Russian Government Andrey Gussev told Tengrinews.kz.
According to him, those who are trying to frighten us with talks about the second and third waves of the crisis without considering the energy market conditions are groundlessly causing panic.
“It is not a secret for anyone that both Kazakhstan and Russian economies strongly depend on hydrocarbon prices,” the economist said. “And as long as oil costs at least $100 per barrel, or better stays within the range of $110-115 per barrel, there are no grounds for talks about any large-scale crisis. Kazakhstan and Russian economies are quite strongly tied to 'metal-dollars', but the dynamics of metal prices normally, albeit indirectly, also depends on the situation at the energy market. For example, the prices for most of metals plunged five-fold or more during the economic crisis of 2008.”
According to Gussev, crisis processes will escalate only in case oil price goes down to $70-80 per barrel, provided that this is not a temporary drop lasting 2-3 weeks, but a longer period of time of 6 to 12 months. “That’s when it will affect the prices dynamics at the stock markets, exchange rates, i.e. both tenge and ruble will drop versus dollar-euro basket,” Gussev said.
The level of the economic crisis, according to the economist, depends on the results of the presidential elections in the United States. “It is unclear yet who will win the elections: the incumbent president democrat Barack Obama or the republican candidate Mitt Romney,” Gussev said. “The thing is that republicans historically have big interests in oil business and, if they come to power, they will try to prevent sharp oil prices drops.”
Election campaigning in United States. ©AFP
In his view, Obama’s victory might be followed by the scenario that unfolded in November-December 2008, when oil price dropped down to $33 per barrel after he became President of the United States.
Gussev considers forecasts of exact oil prices an uneasy task, as the situation is quite complicated in both global economy and politics: escalating conflicts in the Arab world, confrontation between Japan and China, social unrest in Europe.
“There are pros and cons in lowering of oil prices. That’s why it is not easy to forecast hydrocarbon prices. However, it is unlikely that the prices will drop so significantly so as to cause another deep crisis that many journalists and economists are talking about. We will know more clearly whether to expect the second wave of the crisis or not only in November-December, after the elections in the United States,” the economist said.
By Maria Korzheva from Tengrinews.kz
|Andrey Gusev. Photo courtesy of the Finance Academy|
Date of Birth - 30/10/1972
Nationality - Russian
Place of Residence - Moscow
1995 - 2000: PhD from Moscow State Geological Academy, Economics Department
- Economics Finance
- Business Valuation
- Value-Based Management
1989 - 1994: Moscow State Geological Academy, Economics Department, major in Economics
2000- present time - Academy of National Economy (Russia)
Finance Corporate Finance
1999 - present time - Finance Academy (Russia)
- Corporate Finance
- Investment Analysis
- Business Valuation
2005 - present time: Head of Investment Consulting Department STOICA Consulting (Moscow)
2002 - 2005: Head of Investment Consulting Department at IMAKO Group (Moscow)
1998-2002: Head of Business Valuation Department at the Center for Problems Management (Moscow)
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Person of the Year 2010
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