12 earthquakes recorded in Caspian Sea in a week: expert assesses risks for Kazakhstan

Tengrinews.kz – A series of earthquakes in the Caspian Sea has raised questions about potential risks for Kazakhstan, after three tremors were recorded on April 14 alone.

According to data from Azerbaijan’s seismological service, two of the quakes measured magnitude 3.1 and one reached 3.8. Since April 8, a total of 12 earthquakes of varying strength have been recorded in the Caspian region.

Kazakh seismologist Nursarsen Uzbekov explained that the recent tremors are likely aftershocks of a stronger earthquake that occurred earlier in the same area, with a magnitude of about 5.3–5.4.

“These are weak seismic events and can be considered aftershocks of the more noticeable earthquake on April 8,” he said.

According to the expert, the activity is linked to a major tectonic structure in the region — a subduction zone stretching from Turkmenistan through the Kopet Dag seismic zone toward Azerbaijan and the Absheron Peninsula.

No direct threat to Mangystau

Despite the increased activity, the seismologist said there is no direct danger to the Mangystau Region.

“These events are closer to Azerbaijan. They do not pose a potential threat to Mangystau,” he noted.

However, he added that precise forecasting remains difficult due to limited monitoring infrastructure in western Kazakhstan.

“There is only one seismic station in Mangystau, which makes it impossible to draw accurate conclusions about the development of the situation,” he said.

Plans to expand the seismic monitoring network in the region for 2024–2026 were partially prepared but later suspended due to funding issues.

Regional activity expected to continue

Azerbaijani expert Gurban Yetirmishli also earlier stated that the Caspian region remains in an active phase following the April 8 earthquake.

He explained that tectonic pressure — caused by the Arabian plate pushing against the Eurasian plate — is leading to stress accumulation and frequent aftershocks.

Since April 8, more than 500 aftershocks of varying intensity have been recorded in the region at depths ranging from 20 to 35 kilometers and deeper.

“Energy is gradually being released to background levels, which is why we are seeing numerous small tremors. This process may continue for some time,” he said.

Despite the heightened activity, the expert stressed that there is no risk of a catastrophic earthquake, though noticeable tremors may still occur.

Seismologists expect weak earthquakes in the Caspian region to continue in the near future, describing them as natural processes that should not cause panic.