AZAL plane crash near Aktau: Kazakhstan reveals details of the investigation

Tengrinews.kz – Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport has released an interim statement on the progress of the investigation into the aviation incident involving an Embraer 190 aircraft (tail number 4K-AZ65) operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, which occurred near Aktau on 25 December 2024.

What happened

According to the document, the aircraft was operating passenger flight J2-8243 on the Baku (UBBB) – Grozny (URMG) route. As a result of the incident, 38 people (including 3 crew members) died, and 29 people sustained injuries of varying severity.

“The commission for the investigation of the said incident, appointed by order No. 433 of the Acting Minister of Transport of Kazakhstan dated 26.12.2024, continues its work to establish the causes and contributing factors of the aviation occurrence,” the Ministry of Transport said.

Authorised representatives of Azerbaijan, Russia and Brazil, as well as an ICAO observer, are participating in the work of the commission. A preliminary report was earlier released on 4 February 2025.

From the investigation commission's report

Progress of the investigation

At the time of preparing the interim statement, the commission had collected and analysed factual data, including information about the crew and air traffic controllers, documentation on flight preparation and execution, meteorological information, and aircraft maintenance records. Copies of the aircraft logbook and other documents related to the flight were obtained.

The statement separately notes work with the flight recorders: the flight data recorder (FDR) was recovered, identified and its parameters decoded, and the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) was also successfully transcribed.

From the investigation commission's report

Examination of the crash site

The commission carried out a detailed examination of the crash site, recording the spatial position of the aircraft’s structural elements. Photo and video documentation was made, and aircraft components were collected and removed from the site.

From the investigation commission's report

Expert findings

As part of the investigation, comprehensive examinations of foreign metallic objects (external items) were conducted. The results showed no traces of explosives, and no signs of explosion were found on the three oxygen cylinders.

“The damage to the aircraft was presumably caused by fragments of a warhead; however, it has not been possible to establish what they belonged to.”

From the investigation commission's report

In addition, a trace analysis of a section of hydraulic system No. 2 tubing revealed the presence of damage. The mechanism of its formation is described as a rupture of metal resulting from contact with hard objects. The through-type damage could have been caused by metal fragments (external objects) made from an iron-based alloy.

From the investigation commission's report

Work with equipment and data

The cassette of the Central Maintenance Computer, removed from the modular avionics block at the Honeywell International Inc. manufacturing facility, was also examined. Due to thermal impact, it was not possible to retrieve the data.

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It has been recommended to contact the manufacturer of the memory card, Delkin Devices Inc., to attempt data recovery. The commission is currently in talks with the authorised representative of the United States regarding conducting this examination at that company’s facilities.

From the investigation commission's report

Work on the analysis of the GPS1 and GPS2 cassettes, removed from avionics modular blocks No. 1 and No. 3 at the CMC Electronics plant, has been completed, and the obtained data are being analysed.

Separate working groups

The commission has formed two working groups. The first is engaged in analysing risk assessment for flights over or near conflict zones in accordance with ICAO Doc 10084, including issues of interaction between the civil and military sectors.

The second working group carried out a layout (reconstruction) of elements of hydraulic system No. 2 in Aktau. This work has been completed, and the materials are at the analysis stage.

From the investigation commission's report

What’s next

At this stage, the commission is awaiting completion of the work on examining the Central Maintenance Computer cassette, as well as the final report of the working group analysing risk assessment for flights near conflict zones.

“The investigation commission adheres to a balanced position, and all conclusions will be objective, based solely on facts. The final report on the results of the investigation of the aviation incident will be published on the website of the Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan,” the document states.

Context

Exactly one year ago, on 25 December 2024, a passenger aircraft operating the Baku–Grozny route crashed near Aktau. The tragedy claimed dozens of lives and became one of the most discussed air disasters in the region. We have compiled everything that is known about it.