Kazakhstan Tenge will not be devalued: expert 11 июня 2012, 17:16
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Madiyar Kenzhebulat in BloGpost show
An expert of Kazakhstan Ministry of Economic Development Madiyar Kenzhebulat said that 166 tenge per 1 dollar would be “the worst scenario” for Kazakhstan currency amid the falling Russian ruble. The fall of ruble and its impact on tenge was discussed in BloGpost TV show on STV channel, Tengrinews.kz reports.
Kenzhebulat reminded that ruble had lost around 19 percent against dollar in the last 2 months, while tenge lost only 1 percent. According to the expert, ruble has a significant impact on tenge amid the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space. When ruble falls, Russian-made commodities become cheaper and win the competition with Kazakhstan-made goods. This can have a damaging effect on the local producers. The expert says that tenge is going to be devalued only if ruble stays low for a long period of time of 6 months or a year. A hypothetic minimum that tenge could fall to was 166 tenge for 1 dollar. But there are scenarios when Kazakhstan tenge can go up, according to Kenzhebulat.
An independent expert Valentin Makalkin believes that tenge will reach its devaluation minimum amid devaluation of ruble, but its fall may be “softened by internal reserves”. “Of course, tenge will deteriorate with deterioration of the global economy,” Makalkin said.
Kenzhebulat disagrees with this opinion. He reminds of the 2008 bankruptcy of one of the leading financial conglomerates: American investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. Back then, the dollar went expensive against other currencies, in spite of the decline of the United States' GDP.
Answering the host’s question about which currency Kazakhstan residents should keep their savings in, Makalkin said: “Do not put all the eggs in one basket.” The expert advised to split the savings in 4 equal parts and keep them in tenge, rubles, dollars and euro. Kenzhebulat advised to keep 50 percent of the savings in tenge, 25 percent in dollars and 25 in Euro.