Rare cosmic event awaits Earth on Friday the 13th

What is known about Apophis’ flyby

The asteroid in question is 99942 Apophis, which is about 340 meters in diameter. According to NASA, on April 13, 2029, it will pass about 32,000 kilometers from Earth’s surface — closer than many geostationary satellites. This will be the closest predicted approach to Earth by an asteroid of this size.

Scientists estimate that about 90 percent of the planet’s population, or roughly 7.6 billion people, will be in regions where Apophis could potentially be seen without a telescope. However, the success of observations will depend on earthly factors, such as cloud cover and the level of light pollution.

In the sky, the asteroid will not look like a bright meteor or fireball. According to astronomers, observers will see a small glowing point slowly moving across the sky.

“It will definitely be noticeable. It's going to be moving more slowly than a satellite — it will cross the sky in hours, rather than minutes, and it will just be a point,” astronomer Rick Fienberg told Space.

According to maps presented at a scientific workshop, the asteroid will be observable for about seven hours. It will reach its greatest brightness over Cameroon, while the moment of its closest approach to Earth will occur over the northern Atlantic Ocean.

Why this is an important event

The significance of the upcoming flyby lies not only in its closeness, but also in the fact that humanity knows in advance about such a spectacular event for the first time.

“This is the first time we've been able to predict in human history an asteroid visibly passing by the Earth. That's part of a shared experience,” said Richard Binzel, a professor of planetary sciences at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

At the same time, the scientist began his conference speech with the same phrase three times to remove any doubt: “Apophis will safely pass the Earth.”

This confidence did not appear immediately. After Apophis was discovered in 2004, initial calculations showed a probability of collision with Earth in 2029 of about 1 in 37, which made the object the most potentially dangerous of the known asteroids. Later, thanks to many years of observations using optical telescopes and ground-based radar, its orbit was refined.

Today, NASA says there is no risk of Apophis colliding with Earth for at least the next 100 years.

What scientists hope to learn

Scientists are now focused not on the threat, but on the scientific value of the event. During the record close approach, Earth’s gravity will alter the asteroid’s orbit around the Sun. Researchers also suggest that Earth’s gravity may affect Apophis itself.

According to specialists, gravitational forces may slightly stretch and compress the asteroid, change its rotation speed and possibly cause small landslides on its surface, exposing previously hidden rocks. However, the outcome cannot yet be predicted.

“We simply don't know what's going to happen. Apophis may go by and not care too much, or maybe we'll see something significant. That's why we have to look. We're gonna learn a lot either way,” Richard Binzel said.

How Apophis will be studied

An international observation program will be organized to study the asteroid. Ground-based observatories around the world will monitor its movement, shape, rotation and changes in brightness.

NASA has also sent the renamed OSIRIS-APEX spacecraft to Apophis. The spacecraft previously successfully delivered samples from the asteroid Bennu to Earth. The European Space Agency is preparing its own Ramses mission, which will accompany Apophis during its flyby near Earth.

According to NASA, an asteroid of this size passes so close to our planet on average only once every several thousand years. This is why the event on April 13, 2029, is being described as almost unprecedented for modern science.

At the same time, specialists emphasize that it poses no danger either to people or to spacecraft. Instead, it will be a rare opportunity to better understand the structure of near-Earth asteroids and the processes that occur during their close encounters with our planet.