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Tengrinews.kz - A political coup has taken place in Syria. Rebels have seized power. The Ba'ath Party regime, which had ruled since 1963, has collapsed in Syria, and Bashar al-Assad has officially left the post of president of the country.
Tengrinews.kz - A political coup has taken place in Syria. Rebels have seized power. The Ba'ath Party regime, which had ruled since 1963, has collapsed in Syria, and Bashar al-Assad has officially left the post of president of the country.
Will the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime mark the end of the long-standing civil war in Syria? Which political forces may now come to power? And how may the situation in Syria affect Kazakhstan?
The head of the Institute of Asian Studies, political scientist and orientalist Sultan Akimbekov answered the questions of a Tengrinews.kz correspondent.
Who is the main player in the political field in Syria now?
In domestic politics - Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) (the organization is banned in Kazakhstan). This is a fairly tough Islamist organization, once called Jabhat al-Nusra (JN). Even earlier, it was considered a branch of Al-Qaeda, then fought with it. True, in recent years it has tried to look more moderate. But inside Syria now there are many organizations and different forces. There is, for example, the Syrian National Army, it is directly supported by Turkey. There are the Syrian Democratic Forces, mainly Kurds and Arabs from northern Syria. We should also mention local communities and tribes with their militias, for example, the Druze or the Arab tribes of the Syrian desert. So there are a lot of groups, and it is not yet clear who will ultimately dominate and how the government will be structured.
Bashar al-Assad's regime has fallen. What can Syria expect in the future?
The main question is: how can all political forces find a compromise and, if they succeed, what will it look like? For example, will elections be held or will it be a shura (council - ed.) of field commanders? Will Syria remain a secular republic or will it be more religious? Will there be a federation or a unitary state? There have already been battles between the Kurds and pro-Turkish units of the former opposition in the area of the city of Manbij. So everything is still unclear.
Will the civil war in Syria end now?
Of course, the previous factors that made the civil war possible in 2011 are no longer there. However, internal political contradictions remain, and there are many weapons in hand. Therefore, it is impossible to say with certainty. For example, in Libya, after the fall of the Muammar Gaddafi regime, a war began between different groups and tribes.
Could Syria split into new states?
That might be possible. Once upon a time, under French colonial rule, there were separate self-governing territories, such as the Alawite state. Today, the Kurds are effectively independent. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham representatives have spoken about the possibility of a federation. But a split in Syria is unlikely to happen.
Can the situation in Syria somehow affect Kazakhstan?
It cannot affect it directly. We are quite far away. There is another format of influence here - through trends. For example, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may come to power. Then we can get another precedent of a religious organization coming to power. This is after Afghanistan. There is also a possibility of some changes in the geopolitics of the region. Considering that the events in Syria affected Iran, Russia, and Turkey.
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