What awaits Kazakhstan if uranium demand continues to grow, experts weigh in

Tengrinews.kz - Experts shared their insights on Kazakhstan's position amid a potential surge in uranium demand.

Aldiyar Toktarov, Chairman of the Atomic Industry Development Association (AIDA) and a uranium trade expert, believes the rising demand for uranium will pose challenges for the mining industry.

"We need to consider the fundamental and long-term prospects of nuclear energy development and the increasing number of reactors under construction. As you may know, 60 countries have already joined programs aimed at expanding nuclear energy generation. Over the next 20 years, we can expect stable growth in uranium demand. However, a gap could emerge between mining capacity and this heightened demand, as production facilities may not be ready to scale up," Toktarov said.

Nurlan Zhumagulov, Director of the “Energy Monitor” fund, also noted the potential for increased uranium demand. He emphasized that Kazakhstan, represented by Kazatomprom, adheres to a strategy of rational uranium production.

"Output has decreased by an average of 15% from planned levels due to limitations on sulfuric acid production. For Kazakhstan, ramping up uranium production is not economically viable since it could drive prices down. Moreover, Kazatomprom established a specialized fund, “ANU Energy”, a few years ago to purchase surplus uranium for resale to interested parties," Zhumagulov explained.

He added that uranium does not generate significant revenue for Kazakhstan's budget compared to oil. According to Zhumagulov, uranium export revenue is 20 times lower than oil revenue. Uranium mining companies pay lower taxes, with a profit margin of approximately 50%. Starting in 2025, however, the government plans to increase taxes for the uranium sector.

"While Kazakhstan accounts for 40% of the global uranium market, we export concentrate rather than enriched uranium, which directly impacts national revenue and profits. Unfortunately, we do not have access to uranium enrichment technologies," Zhumagulov noted.

Economist and international relations expert Anuar Bakhitkhanov agrees that rising uranium demand will drive global price increases. He attributes October's surge in uranium prices, exceeding $84 per pound, to Russia's restrictions on nuclear fuel exports to the U.S., creating market tension. Bakhitkhanov predicts prices could surpass $100 per pound in the future, especially with the global shift to "green" energy, where nuclear power plays a key role.

"As the world's largest uranium producer, Kazakhstan is well-positioned to secure new contracts at current high prices. However, timely action is crucial to capitalize on this opportunity before the market stabilizes. Expanding production is also feasible, given available resources, but environmental and investment considerations must be addressed. Rising uranium prices could significantly bolster Kazakhstan's budget, providing funds for major state programs and reducing reliance on other extractive industries," Bakhitkhanov said.

Toktarov added that uranium prices, which exceeded $100 per pound in early 2024, later declined and now fluctuate between $77 and $90 per pound.

"This range is a normal price movement. We shouldn't interpret minor increases or decreases as significant. The price rally occurred in 2023 when uranium rose from $50 per pound early in the year to over $90 per pound by year-end," he noted.

While Toktarov sees fundamental drivers for uranium price growth, he believes the $100-per-pound threshold is a long-term prospect, potentially taking 3 to 10 years.

To understand Kazakhstan's role in the global uranium market, Toktarov highlighted that Kazatomprom consistently supplies uranium for nuclear energy worldwide.

"Kazatomprom is one of the key suppliers of uranium for the global nuclear energy sector, and its primary role is to ensure reliable and stable supply," Toktarov stated.

He explained that Kazatomprom and other major suppliers generate profits from the difference between production costs and current market prices, and their profit maximization strategies are built around this model.

"Market speculation—buying low and selling high—is the domain of trading companies, not suppliers. The company's main goal is to maintain production volumes to meet current demand. While new deposits are being explored, this primarily serves to replace depleting production capacities. Kazakhstan certainly stands to benefit financially if uranium prices continue to rise, which would also strengthen the country's budget," he added.

Zhumagulov believes higher uranium prices will also heighten market competition.

"Higher prices make mining in hard-to-reach areas of Western countries economically attractive. U.S. authorities have already announced incentives for American companies to increase uranium production and enrichment," he added.

Zhumagulov also highlighted China's growing interest in long-term uranium supplies.

"China is constructing and planning dozens of new nuclear power plants. Kazakh uranium is typically purchased first by partner countries involved in joint mining projects with Kazatomprom, including Russia, France, Canada, China, and Japan," Zhumagulov stated.

Regarding agreements with China, Toktarov noted that the recent contracts include both spot and long-term deals.

"The two companies involved are affiliated with the Chinese nuclear corporation, a global leader in nuclear energy and a long-standing partner of Kazakhstan. The long-term contract, spanning more than three years, aligns with the standard practice for uranium mining companies," Toktarov clarified.

Bakhitkhanov positively assessed Kazatomprom's recent spot contract with Chinese companies, valued at 1.25 trillion tenge. He sees the deal as beneficial for Kazakhstan, strengthening ties with one of the largest uranium consumers while ensuring significant near-term revenues.

Although mutual sanctions between Russia and the U.S. may not directly impact uranium mining in Kazakhstan, Bakhitkhanov believes they could disrupt exports and logistics. This situation may require Kazakhstan to seek new markets and partners.

Toktarov underscored the importance of risk mitigation strategies in the sector.

"As the world's largest uranium supplier, Kazakhstan cannot be easily replaced. Any sanctions targeting this industry would likely consider the significant impact on Kazakh companies. Major global uranium producers operate in Kazakhstan, including companies from France, Japan, and China, which are unaffected by sanctions," Toktarov concluded.

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