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Tengrinews.kz – The first day of winter arrived unusually warm and snowless across most of Kazakhstan. Not only is there no snow cover — there is barely even a hint of snowfall. Tengrinews.kz looked into why this is happening and what it means for the coming winter.
According to Kazhydromet, temperatures on 1 December in Astana ranged from 0 to +2 degrees, with no precipitation and light winds.
In Almaty, daytime temperatures range from +3 to +6 degrees Celsius with no precipitation expected and light winds at 1–2 meters per second.
In Shymkent, temperatures may reach up to +10 degrees Celsius. No precipitation is forecast there either, with winds of 2–3 meters per second.
What makes the situation striking is the north: early December traditionally brings stable frost and the first solid layer of snow, yet this year the region remains bare. Meteorologists confirm that this is not a coincidence but a clear sign of climate change.
On 30 November, average temperatures across Kazakhstan were 8–11 degrees above the long-term norm.
Climate trends behind a snowless winter
- Kazhydromet data shows that Kazakhstan’s average air temperature has been steadily rising — by about +0.36 degrees over the past decade.
- Winters are becoming milder, with fewer days of deep cold and fewer opportunities for stable snow cover to form.
- Temperature swings, warm spells and off-season anomalies are becoming more common, directly affecting winter frost and snowfall.
At the same time, precipitation patterns have become less predictable. In many regions there is no stable trend toward more winter snow. That means that even when temperatures are low enough, snowfall may simply not occur.
Climate change affects regions unevenly: the most significant warming is seen in the west and south, but even in northern Kazakhstan winters are getting shorter, frosts are weakening and snow cover is less stable each year.
What this means for the future
Meteorologists warn that if current patterns continue, winters with little or no snow may become the new normal in Kazakhstan — especially in regions where cold, snowy winters were once taken for granted.
December 2025 forecast
Temperatures are expected to stay near seasonal norms, and slightly above norms in the west. The north and east may see brief dips to around –1°C on some days. Precipitation is forecast to be near average across most regions, with some deficits in parts of Kyzylorda and Kostanay regions and slight increases in northeastern and mountainous southeastern areas.
Overall, winter is expected to be moderately warm with infrequent snow, though periods of blizzards, icy conditions, fog and sharp temperature swings remain possible.
Earlier, Kazhydromet issued a forecast for 2–4 December, predicting rain and snow across most of the country, with blowing snow and icy conditions in northern, eastern and central regions.
