06 January 2025 | 17:50

Superbugs could kill 40 million people in 25 years, scientists warn

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Tengrinews.kz - British scientists have warned of the threat of growing bacterial resistance to antibiotics, which could kill 40 million people in the next 25 years, according to The Guardian.

As superbugs spread around the world, the death rate due to antimicrobial resistance could double, according to Dame Sally Davies, England's former chief medical officer.

"Recent data shows AMR is going down in the under-fives, which is good news. For the over-70s, mortality rates have gone up 80% since 1990; that is very concerning," Davies said.

She notes that the aging population and the increasing number of people with chronic diseases make them more vulnerable to antibiotics.

She estimates that by 2050, the death rate due to AMR will double, with almost 40 million people dying from superbugs, with older people particularly vulnerable.

"About a million people die every year because of the spread of microbial resistance, and that figure will rise over the next 25 years. It is really scary," she said.

At the same time, according to her data, doctors are trying to limit the prescription of antibiotics as much as possible. However, medical abuse of antibiotics is not the only way resistance spreads. The environment plays a critical role since about 70% of all antibiotics are used in animal husbandry, creating a reservoir of animals in which resistance develops.

"We're essentially throwing antibiotics at cows and chickens and sheep as cheap alternatives to give them growth promoters or prophylactics to prevent the spread of disease," Davies added.

This, she believes, encourages the evolution of microbes, allowing them to develop resistance to antibiotics, which then spreads around the world.

"If you've got intensive farming where a lot of antibiotics are used or a busy hospital that has a poor sewage system, resistant bacteria can get into waterways. Winds blow over these patches of contaminated land or water and pick up bacteria and genes with resistance in them, then let them rain down in other places. That is how pernicious this problem has become," Davies said.

She noted that bacteria reproduce about every 20 minutes and have a good survival rate.

"They also mutate a great deal, and if they do so in the presence of antibiotics and that mutation protects them, these strains will multiply. Crucially they can pass that on to any bacteria with which they make contact," she explained.

At the same time, Davies pointed out the need to develop new drugs. However, she clarifies that since the late 80s, no new classes of antibiotics have been created that would be widely used. Since within the framework of the current market economy, it is unprofitable to create new drugs that will be used once a year for a week.

"By contrast, blood pressure drugs that have to be taken every day, or cancer drugs that have to be administered for months, offer pharmaceuticals far greater profits. So there is no incentive for them to try to develop new antibiotics. It is a real headache," Davies noted.

Despite the gloomy forecasts, the problem is solvable, Davies believes. Global measures are needed, including strengthening control over the use of antibiotics in medicine and agriculture, as well as stimulating the development of new drugs. The G7 forum has acknowledged the problem, but so far there has been little action.

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