Draft forecast of Kazakhstan social-economic development until 2016 presented

30 августа 2011, 18:17
Project of the country’s social-economic development in 2012-2016 was presented to Kazakhstan government on August 27, Tengrinews.kz reports. The forecast of budget parameters is formed up based on this document.

The predicted level of oil prices for the base scenario in 2012 is $80 per barrel and $70 in 2013-2016 (pessimistic scenario is $60-40 per barrel).

“Forecast of macroeconomic values is formed up based on the results of the first half of the year, current situation at the world trade markets, adjusted forecasts of international organizations on world prices for main exported goods,” Minister of Economic Development and Trade Kairat Kelimbetov said.

It is expected that nominal GDP in 2012 will make 28.9 trillion tenge ($196.6 billion), with an increase to 44.7 trillion ($304 billion) by 2013. Ensuring balanced economic growth of at least 7 percent a year will be the main goal of economic polices in 2012-2014.

Kelimbetov stressed that ‘taxation policy in the medium-term period will be aimed at effective implementation of selected measures of state policy and provision of balances economic growth.” According to the Minister, taxation policy will be focused on further promotion of development of non-oil and gas sectors of the economy and innovative activities of the companies of the real sector, first of all. Budget policy will be aimed at promotion of economic development without violation of macroeconomic stability. It will have to be based on balancing the budget and the national fund to avoide decumulation of oil profits.

The draft measures for stabilization of the economy in case of deterioration of the situation in the world economy, including changes of budget parameters, was developed with consideration of volatility of the world oil prices.

The main priorities of budget expenses in 2012-2014 are: industrial-innovative development program, modernization of social areas, improvement of people’s life conditions, creation of growth hubs and improvement of the quality of state services.

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