Will 2025 be a difficult year for Kazakhstanis? Expert explains his forecast

Tengrinews.kz - Last weekend, economic experts discussed measures to increase budget revenues, including the exclusion of some tax benefits and raising the corporate income tax rates for banks and financial organizations. At that time, Kazakhstani financier Rassul Rysmambetov shared a forecast, stating that 2025 would be a difficult year for Kazakhstan. What exactly can Kazakhs expect? Tengrinews.kz correspondent investigated.

Unpopular reforms have long been needed

"When I say it will be a difficult year, I mean that the entire state apparatus is at a crossroads. If we leave things as they are, in 3-4 years, our infrastructure will start falling apart. To prevent this, unpopular measures will have to be taken: some tariffs will need to be raised, as we are already seeing, and prices will need to be increased. All of this will have to be done against the backdrop of people’s fatigue from a hard life," Rysmambetov explained.

The financier clarified that the overdue reforms refer to aligning prices, tariffs, and taxes with market conditions.

"The main idea is that we have probably already reached the limits of using the National Fund. Therefore, taxes will probably need to be raised to bring them to a 'decent' level. We will have to reduce, eliminate, or temporarily restrict tax regimes for businesses. As the Ministry of Finance says—and I agree with it—these are tax havens. Social obligations include pensions, education, and healthcare," he noted.

According to Rassul Rysmambetov, these reforms have been overdue for "about 10 years." He cited the poor condition of district heating plants (DHP), infrastructure, and irrigation as arguments.

"All of this we will have to do. Therefore, I believe the time has come. The most important thing is to handle everything properly in terms of communication and explain that it's not the Minister of Economy and the Prime Minister seeking more money. These funds must be directed towards restoring the country's infrastructure," emphasized the financier.

"Prices will rise, but not drastically"

A reasonable question arises: how will these measures affect the well-being of Kazakhs?

"Regarding the impact on the people's condition, I think it will lead to slightly higher inflation: sometimes a little, sometimes not. As for food prices: more or less everything will remain within the same limits, plus inflation. Unpopular reforms are about raising taxes and fuel prices. It should be understood that the government doesn't want to raise prices just for the sake of raising them. This is the process of bringing prices to market conditions," said the expert.

At the same time, Rysmambetov did not venture to predict exactly how prices would increase, noting only that the growth would be modest.

"Food prices will rise, but not significantly. For some goods—imported items or long-term demand products—I think there should be a slight increase. How much this will be in percentage terms, I don't know, because these will be market changes, and it's difficult for me to predict at the moment," he added.

Will new taxes and fines appear in Kazakhstan?

According to Rassul Rysmambetov, there will be no new fines in Kazakhstan, but taxes for businesses will increase. Additionally, the expert noted that the number of tax benefits will decrease.

"Because some companies have been using tax benefits for 5-10 years. This has been overdue. The situation in the country can be very clearly understood if you look at the reforms in Argentina. Of course, no one will reduce social spending. But it will still be difficult," warned the financier.

As noted by the interviewee of Tengrinews.kz, the government today needs to properly establish communication, explaining why taxes are being increased.

"All of this is needed for pensions, for social spending: education and healthcare. The most important thing is the people," concluded the financier.

Rassul Rysmambetov is a well-known financial consultant in Kazakhstan. As an expert, he regularly comments on economic changes and the situation in the country, and expresses his views on relevant issues in this field. He is currently the chairman of the board of "KФ NAC Analytica."