What Tokayev's speech in the government meant, explains political scientist

Tengrinews.kz - Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's speech at a government meeting attracted attention and became a kind of benchmark for the next five years. Political scientist Arkady Dubnov believes that it reflects not only internal challenges, but also a reaction to global changes, including the possible consequences of Donald Trump's economic policy. Read more in the article.

"Uncertainty has been eliminated"

At a recent government meeting, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed to keep under special control the implementation of major investment projects with China, Russia, the United States, the EU, the Middle East, Asia and many other countries.

Tokayev also noted that in the current geopolitical realities, it is necessary to move to a new level of cooperation with our closest neighbors, specifying that we are talking about the countries of Central Asia and the EAEU.

According to Arkady Dubnov, the significance of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's recent speech at a meeting with the government should be considered in the context of the visit of the Russian government delegation led by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin that followed a few days later.

"In an effort to assess the significance of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's recent speech at a government meeting, I would suggest immediately recording the event that followed a couple of days after this big presidential-government hour. I mean the visit to Astana of the government delegation headed by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and his negotiations with President Tokayev. The discussion was about intensifying joint cooperation in almost all areas of the economy. The political expression of this course was the announcement by the Kazakh President of his participation in the May events in Moscow on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War. This is especially worth noting, since some time ago, when Astana announced that it would hold its own Victory Parade, this was also perceived as a sign that Tokayev, citing this, could refuse to visit Moscow," the political scientist said.

Now the uncertainty has been eliminated, says Arkady Dubnov. According to him, this news gives the Kremlin the opportunity to rely on Akorda, including as a partner in the future process of establishing relations with the new administration in the United States.

"Certificate of Tokayev's readiness to remain in office until the end of his term"

Political scientist Arkady Dubnov noted that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's meeting with the government and the tasks set before him can be viewed as a plan for the country's development over the next five years, coinciding with the remaining term of his presidential powers.

Dubnov also suggested that, despite the dramatic world events that coincide with the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump, Tokayev's activity in presenting his program should not be viewed solely as a reaction to external changes. The expert believes that such a hypothesis would be incorrect.

"On the other hand, of course, when the Head of State announces upcoming cardinal changes in the world that "may have a strong impact on the economic situation in our country," then such a formulation of the question makes it possible to point out the most vulnerable points in the economy of one's own country.

Moreover, the painfulness of the situation may be aggravated if the United States, under the leadership of its 47th president, manages to bring down world oil prices with a carrot and stick, which will deal a blow to oil-resource countries such as Kazakhstan. Even if the goal of Trump's strategy is Russia, which in this case will have to lose its super-profits from oil sales, which will force it to stop military actions in Ukraine," the political scientist added.

"Belt-tightening" is the slogan for the government

"One way or another, President Tokayev is already demanding that the government cut costs, calling for ‘belt-tightening and living within one's means.’ I'm not sure that ordinary citizens in Kazakhstan will find this slogan fair, they are not living the high life anyway. Then who is it addressed to? I think, to those who spend state money on unnecessary, meaningless projects in terms of efficiency and cost-effectiveness. But what about the bureaucratic class, for whom such projects are extremely desirable, since they are conceived to enrich this class... In other words, they are desperately "corruption-intensive," he emphasized.

But since officials are ‘a cunning bunch,’ they will resist, the expert on Central Asia noted. And then, as Dubnov noted, Tokayev says unpopular words that appeal to world experience: ‘It is impossible to achieve order without measures of state coercion.’ The political scientist suggested that second-tier banks, which, according to according to Tokayev, they are indebted to the state.

"Shortage of competent professionals"

Among other points he made in his instructions to the government, Dubnov notes the actual admission that Kazakhstan is catastrophically short of competent professionals and managers in a wide range of economic sectors.

"This may look like a legacy of the last years of the Soviet era and the first post-Soviet years, when it became fashionable to study to become lawyers, the excess of which led to a shortage of professionals. This imbalance cannot be quickly corrected. And perhaps the question will arise about the need to attract or buy foreign competencies," Dubnov added.

Return of money from offshores and energy

As the political scientist notes, much has been said about the decline in foreign investment, but nothing at the public level about the success or failure of returning to the country the multi-billion dollar funds taken out to offshores and abroad by the figures of "old Kazakhstan".

Important tasks of building a nuclear cluster in Kazakhstan, increasing energy capacity and increasing electricity tariffs have been discussed before. However, according to Arkady Dubnov, right now, "in the coming difficult times, these problems are easier to sell to society and the nomenclature, indicating the inevitability of future difficulties and losses."

"One can see in Tokayev's state instructions an obvious disappointment with this nomenclature, whose milieu has shown an unwillingness to take responsibility and show initiative... But a certain contradiction is also visible here: on the one hand, such unwillingness is a consequence of the dominant presence of the state in the economy of Kazakhstan, and on the other, this has to be corrected by increasing the level of state coercion measures," he added.

Tokayev's intriguing speech

"Tokayev's speech seems intriguing also because, as it seems from the outside, he was perhaps the first leader in the Eurasian space who publicly risked drawing conclusions from the change of milestones in America. And he did not seem an optimist," Arkady Dubnov summed up.