Tengrinews.kz – What will happen to the dollar exchange rate, and are there any prerequisites for its further growth? National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov answered this question on the sidelines of the Majilis.
Details
According to Timur Suleimenov, the National Bank currently sees no prerequisites for a sharp rise in the exchange rate.
“As for the dollar exchange rate, we do not see any fundamental or market prerequisites for its sharp increase. Neither in summer nor in autumn,” the head of the National Bank said.
“The exchange rate is seasonal”
Suleimenov explained that exchange rate fluctuations may be caused by seasonal factors. According to him, demand for foreign currency traditionally rises in summer due to the start of the holiday season.
He compared this “seasonality” with prices for vegetables and meat.
“We have seasonality in vegetables, in meat prices and in other things. Even in tariffs: in summer we pay less because we do not heat our homes, while in autumn and winter we heat more. Therefore, the dollar exchange rate also has its own seasonality. In summer, people buy currency for vacations and so on,” Suleimenov explained.
He also emphasized that in summer and autumn, large companies more actively purchase foreign equipment and materials in order to implement more projects during the construction season. According to the head of the National Bank, this is why the exchange rate usually declines at the beginning of the year and begins to rise closer to the middle and end of the year.
“Therefore, we think the same trend will continue this year. But it will not be anything extraordinary. It will remain within established historical values. There will be no sharp increase,” the head of the National Bank assured.
What else
Earlier, the National Bank commented on why the dollar had begun to rise and what to expect next.
“In my view, the situation should not be cause for great surprise. The exchange rates we saw previously—around 500 tenge per dollar—occurred when oil was priced at approximately $65–70 per barrel. When our primary export, oil, nearly doubles in price, foreign exchange earnings increase. Naturally, the tenge would strengthen,” Timur Suleimenov explained.
At the time, the head of the National Bank emphasized that the exchange rate is influenced not only by the supply of foreign currency, but also by demand for it.
