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Tengrinews.kz - Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are expected to play an increasingly important role in supplying oil to Europe in the long term. This is stated in an OPEC report, citing Trend.
According to the forecast, exports of crude oil and condensate to Europe will stabilize at around 1.6 million barrels per day until 2050.
“While this figure is considerably lower than pre-2022 levels—when Russian crude still flowed freely into the EU—it highlights the growing strategic importance of alternative Caspian suppliers, particularly Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan,” the publication notes.
OPEC points out that the EU embargo on Russian oil has led to a reorientation of traditional supply routes. It is projected that imports from Russia and the Caspian region as a whole will decline from 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024 to just under 1.7 million barrels by 2030, and will fall further to 1.6 million barrels per day by the end of the forecast period.
At the same time, the majority of these supplies will come from non-Russian sources, with a significant share attributed to Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
According to OPEC estimates, it is unlikely that Russian oil exports to Europe will return to pre-conflict levels. This strengthens the position of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as reliable long-term suppliers for the European market, the publication concludes.
Earlier in June, OPEC reported that Kazakhstan, along with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman, would increase oil output in July 2025 as part of a coordinated decision by OPEC+ members.
