03 October 2024 | 12:27

Kazakh political analyst explained the risks of Iran's attack on Israel

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Tengrinews.kz - Kazakh political analyst Marat Shibutov shared his opinion on the consequences of Iran's missile strike on Israel.

Marat Shibutov noted that Iran's attack on Israel was not very effective and, in reality, demonstrates the country's weakness rather than its strength.

"This is a meaningless strike, as launching 180 missiles in one wave at various targets, most of which are empty areas, makes the work of air defense easier. To inflict real damage, the strike would be directed at a single target, in multiple waves, using air defense suppression strategies," Shibutov said.

According to the political analyst, this was the second consecutive attack by Iran that did not have serious consequences. Moreover, the strikes themselves are carried out in a "soft" manner, where efforts are made to avoid civilian targets and to warn the population about the attacks in advance.

"I think under such conditions, there is a possibility of some kind of "agreement" between Israel and Iran that they won't act too aggressively against each other," added the political analyst.

In Shibutov's opinion, such a situation would lead to a decline in Iran's authority on the international stage, and in the worst-case scenario, internal dissatisfaction within the country.

The likelihood of the conflict escalating into a ground war between Iran and Israel is low, according to the analyst, as these countries do not share a common border, and any war in neighboring Lebanon could be resolved fairly quickly. In the current situation, Israel will either choose to maintain the status quo or attempt to strike Iran. Potential targets for Israel’s response could be gas and oil fields in Iran.

"For Israel, there is currently an opportunity to strike Iran's oil and gas facilities, as the damage from such an attack could be devastating," noted the political analyst.

The likelihood of using nuclear weapons, which Israel may possess according to unconfirmed information, is also very low, according to Shibutov. Much will also depend on the position of the United States.

Recall, on the evening of October 1, Iran launched several hundred ballistic and cruise missiles at Israel. According to the Jerusalem Post, there were about 500. ABC News reported is expected to launch 240 to 250 missiles in two waves. An air alert sounded across the country.

Conflict Israel Iran Middle East war

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