Is the era of “cheap” iPhones over? How much Apple gadgets will cost in tenge

Apple is preparing to raise prices on its hardware due to a sharp increase in the cost of memory chips. CEO Tim Cook admitted that it will no longer be possible to fully shield customers from rising production costs. Tengrinews.kz has examined forecasts from international analysts and, together with a Kazakhstani expert, looked into how much the new iPhones, MacBooks, and iPads could cost in our country under various scenarios.

What Tim Cook actually said

Tim Cook discussed the impending price hikes shared in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. According to Cook, Apple has long tried to avoid passing rising expenses onto consumers, but the current cost of components has become unsustainable for the company.

However, Cook did not specify which devices would see price increases, which markets would be affected, or when the new pricing would take effect.

When asked about specific devices and timelines, the Apple chief responded that the company is still finalizing these decisions.

The role of Artificial Intelligence

The primary cause is a shortage of two types of components:

• DRAM — Dynamic Random-Access Memory;
• NAND — Flash memory used for storing applications, photos, and other data.

The same manufacturers produce memory for smartphones, computers, and the massive servers that power AI systems. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and other corporations are increasing spending on data centers and are willing to pay more for components than consumer electronics manufacturers.

As a result, chipmakers find it more profitable to allocate production capacity to server-grade memory. Supplies for phones and laptops are tightening, driving prices upward.

According to estimates by TechInsights, 12 gigabytes of RAM for the iPhone 17 Pro cost Apple approximately $39. For the next generation, that same amount could cost as much as $145.

The cost of a 256GB storage drive, by the same estimate, could rise from $13 to $51.

In total, the estimated production cost of a base iPhone Pro could increase from $582 to $726—a jump of roughly 25 percent.

However, a rise in production costs does not automatically mean retail prices will increase by the same 25 percent. Apple may partially absorb the cost by narrowing its margins, apply different price hikes to base and Pro models, or pass the bulk of the expenses onto high-capacity storage versions.

Consequently, analyst projections vary significantly.

Moderate scenario: around seven percent

One of the most conservative estimates comes from Counterpoint Research. The firm expects the average global smartphone price to rise by 6.9 percent in 2026. However, this forecast applies to the entire market, rather than Apple specifically.

The average price could also increase if manufacturers release fewer budget devices, reduce memory in base configurations, push premium smartphones more aggressively, or move away from traditional discounts.

If a 6.9 percent increase were applied to current prices in Kazakhstan, an iPhone 17 Pro costing roughly 853,000 tenge would rise to approximately 912,000 tenge.

An iPhone 17 Pro Max currently priced at 899,000 tenge would increase to about 961,000 tenge.

This represents the most optimistic and mild scenario among current projections.

Smartphones up 13 percent, computers up 17 percent

Research firm Gartner anticipates a more significant spike. According to its forecast, by the end of 2026, the combined cost of RAM and SSD storage could be 130 percent higher than in 2025.

According to Gartner’s calculations, this could lead to an increase in average costs for:

• smartphones — by 13 percent;
• computers — by 17 percent.

Analysts suggest that budget hardware may be hit even harder than premium products. High-end device manufacturers have higher profit margins and are better equipped to temporarily absorb some of the additional costs.

Applying Gartner's forecast to current prices in Kazakhstan results in the following:

• iPhone 17 Pro — approximately 964,000 tenge instead of 853,000;
• iPhone 17 Pro Max — approximately 1 million tenge instead of 899,000;
• MacBook Air M5 — approximately 902,000 tenge instead of the estimated 771,000.

Apple could add $100–$200

Bank of America analysts believe the company will implement price increases unevenly.

According to Proactive Investors reports that experts initially estimated a price hike of about $100. However, following new data on memory costs, the forecast for the iPhone Pro and Pro Max was increased by an additional $100.

At the same time, Apple may maintain current pricing for the base iPhone and certain more affordable devices for a longer period. This strategy allows the company to retain customers in the mass-market segment while shifting a significant portion of additional expenses onto clients who opt for high-end models.

The current iPhone 17 Pro is priced in the US starting from $1,099. A $100 increase represents approximately a 9% rise, while a $200 increase represents approximately 18%.

If current Kazakhstani prices change proportionally:

• The iPhone Pro could cost approximately 930,000 to 1.01 million tenge;
• The iPhone Pro Max could cost approximately 974,000 to 1.05 million tenge.

Worst-case scenario: iPhone Pro starting from $1,299

TechInsights and journalists from The Wall Street Journal allow for a more significant price hike.

Currently, the 256GB iPhone 17 Pro starts at $1,099 in the US. According to expert calculations, the next iPhone Pro could cost:

• $1,299 — if Apple partially reduces its margins;
• around $1,371 — if the company attempts to maintain its current profitability;
• $1,399 and higher — if more expensive components are added alongside high-cost memory.

A price of $1,299 means a $200 increase, or 18.2%. A price of $1,399 means a $300 increase, or 27.3%.

If the same growth percentage is applied to the current price of the iPhone Pro in Kazakhstan, the device could cost:

• approximately 1.01 million tenge with an 18.2% increase;
• approximately 1.09 million tenge with a 27.3% increase.

For the Pro Max, a similar calculation yields a range of approximately 1.06 to 1.14 million tenge.

However, even these calculations do not directly determine the future price in Kazakhstan. The cost of an iPhone is shaped not only by Apple's expenditures on memory, processors, screens, and assembly. It is also influenced by how much consumers are willing to pay for the brand itself and its ecosystem.

Why the price may rise faster than production costs

As explained by Venera Zhanalina, a financier and expert at QazExpertClub, pricing is driven by a "triangle": cost of production, product value to the consumer, and the final price.

"The cost of production shows the expense of components, assembly, logistics, taxes, distribution, and service. Value is what the consumer sees: the Apple ecosystem, convenience, security, the camera, status, long-term updates, and high resale value. The price, in turn, is the amount the market is willing to pay for this value," she explained to Tengrinews.kz.

According to Zhanalina, Apple utilizes value-based pricing. The customer is not just paying for a set of components, but for a product integrated into the company's ecosystem.

For some consumers, the iPhone is a work tool, a status symbol, a familiar operating system, and a device that can later be resold at a relatively high price.

This is why the expert believes the retail price can grow faster than the cost of production.

In the current situation, objective reasons have joined value-based pricing: rising memory costs, the development of AI infrastructure, and increased demand from data centers.

"While the company could previously partially offset rising costs through its inventory and margins, this resource is now becoming limited. Additionally, trade policy impacts the price: tariffs, restrictions, relocation of production chains, and dependence on suppliers in Asia. This is particularly sensitive for the iPhone because its production is globally distributed: components are made in some countries, assembly takes place in others, and sales happen worldwide," Zhanalina said.

For the Kazakhstani buyer, however, Apple's global price is only the starting point of the calculation.

Why you can't just convert dollars to tenge

The official National Bank exchange rate as of June 19 is 487.73 tenge per dollar.

At this rate:

• $1,299 is about 634,000 tenge;
• $1,399 is about 682,000 tenge.

However, US prices are typically listed without sales tax. The retail price in Kazakhstan additionally includes VAT, import costs, logistics, warranty service, and the margins of the distributor and retailer.

Only after adding the Kazakhstan VAT of 16 percent do the estimated totals increase to approximately:

• 735,000 tenge for a device priced at $1,299;
• 792,000 tenge for a device priced at $1,399.

And this is still not the final retail price.

Apple's official website in Kazakhstan does not set a single retail price for direct sales, but rather directs customers to authorized resellers. Therefore, the final cost depends not only on the manufacturer's decision but also on delivery terms and the policies of local companies.

As Venera Zhanalina notes, the currency factor is particularly important for Kazakhstan.

"The iPhone is imported, so the final price in tenge depends not only on Apple's dollar price but also on the tenge exchange rate, the VAT rate, logistics, and the margins of distributors and retailers. If the dollar price rises by 10 percent and the tenge simultaneously weakens, the final price increase for a buyer in Kazakhstan could exceed 10 percent," she explained.

For example, if a device becomes ten percent more expensive in the US while the dollar-to-tenge exchange rate also rises, these two factors compound. On top of that, taxes, shipping costs, and retailer markups are added to the purchase price.

Consequently, the same model may see a more significant price hike in Kazakhstan than in the American market.

Consumers themselves may accelerate price growth

The expert identified the public's inflationary expectations as another factor.

When buyers believe that imported electronics will continue to get more expensive, some decide not to delay their purchase. A logic emerges: buy now before the device becomes even more expensive.

"Such demand supports prices and gives retailers more room for increases. In other words, inflationary expectations themselves can amplify price pressure," Zhanalina explained.

This effect can be particularly noticeable before the release of a new iPhone generation or amid reports of potential price increases.

However, the situation can later reverse. If smartphones indeed become significantly more expensive, some buyers will postpone upgrading, choose last year's model, or switch to a more affordable configuration.

How installment plans will affect the cost

For the Kazakhstan market, it is not just the full price of the smartphone that matters, but also the terms of purchase. Many buyers focus primarily on the size of the monthly installment payment.

According to Venera Zhanalina, a maximum debt-to-income ratio is planned for introduction starting in 2027. A possible tightening of consumer lending could affect the accessibility of major purchases.

"If requirements for installment plans and consumer loans become stricter, buying an iPhone could become less accessible: down payments might increase, installment terms could decrease, approvals could tighten, or the actual cost of the purchase could rise," the expert noted.

Expectations of stricter rules may initially trigger front-loaded demand: some people will try to buy electronics while the old terms are still in effect.

After the actual tightening of credit, demand may, conversely, weaken. Even if the price of the smartphone itself changes moderately, a higher down payment or monthly payment will make the device less affordable.

Thus, for the buyer, it is not only the price on the tag that matters, but also how much they will have to pay each month.

Which scenario the expert considers most likely

According to Venera Zhanalina's assessment, if we take a hypothetical $1,000 iPhone, the most justified moderate scenario suggests a price increase to approximately $1,100.

A similar shift has already occurred within the Apple lineup: the iPhone 16 Pro started at $999, while the iPhone 17 Pro launched with a price starting from $1,099. It should be noted that the company simultaneously increased the minimum internal storage capacity.

A more aggressive scenario—around $1,300—also has analytical grounding. The Wall Street Journal, citing TechInsights, estimated that the rising cost of RAM and flash memory could increase the production cost of the future iPhone Pro by about 25 percent. If the company attempts to maintain previous margins, the device's price could approach $1,299.

"However, $1,500 is not a baseline scenario for the same model. Such a level is more likely for an upgrade to the Pro Max, higher storage capacities, high-demand configurations, or in the local market where exchange rates, taxes, logistics, retailer margins, and installment terms are added to Apple's dollar price," Zhanalina believes.

The expert also suggests distinguishing between devices currently in stock at Kazakhstani retailers and future shipments.

The price of existing stock is less dependent on future exchange rates and new procurement terms. Predicting the cost of upcoming shipments is more difficult: it will depend on the tenge exchange rate at the time of purchase, Apple's wholesale price, device availability, and financing costs.

"For consumers in Kazakhstan, the actual price hike for the iPhone may exceed the officially announced percentage. This is especially true if three factors coincide: a rise in Apple’s global pricing, a weakening tenge, and worsening installment plan terms. In such a case, while the device's formal price might rise moderately, its actual affordability for the buyer would drop more significantly," Venera Zhanalina concluded.

The outlook for MacBook and iPad

There are no precise forecasts from Apple regarding computers and tablets yet. However, these specific devices may feel the memory shortage most acutely, as they are equipped with more RAM and higher-capacity storage drives.

Gartner expects computer prices to rise by an average of 17 percent. Applying this benchmark to the cost of a MacBook Air M5 in Kazakhstan, the price could increase from approximately 771,000 to 902,000 tenge.

The iPad Pro 11 M5 is currently offered in Kazakhstan starting from approximately 709,000 tenge. With a hypothetical increase of 13–17 percent, it would cost around 801,000–830,000 tenge.

However, there is no separate reliable forecast specifically for the iPad yet. These figures illustrate the potential scale of price changes rather than a future official price list.

Will prices for existing models increase?

Prices for all currently available iPhones, Macs, and iPads will not necessarily change simultaneously.

The market may first encounter other consequences:

• reduced discounts;
• the disappearance of the most affordable configurations;
• higher pricing for new shipments;
• maintaining previous price points with reduced memory capacity;
• a widening gap between base and Pro versions.

IDC suggests that some manufacturers may install less RAM and internal storage to avoid passing the full increase in production costs on to consumers.

For example, a device that would previously have featured 12GB of RAM and 256GB of storage might be released with 8GB and 128GB at the same or even a higher price.

TrendForce also previously warned that Apple might abandon its usual practice of discounting older models following the release of a new generation.

The bottom line: How much will iPhones cost in Kazakhstan?

Based on available forecasts, three potential scenarios can be identified.

Moderate: iPhone Pro — around 910,000–930,000 tenge, Pro Max — around 960,000–975,000 tenge.

Baseline: iPhone Pro — around 960,000–1.01 million tenge, Pro Max — around 1.02–1.06 million tenge.

High-end: iPhone Pro — up to 1.09 million tenge, Pro Max — up to 1.14 million tenge and above.

For now, selective adjustments seem more likely than a uniform price hike across the entire lineup. Apple may keep prices for base models stable or raise them moderately, while more significantly increasing the cost of Pro versions, high-capacity devices, Macs, and iPads.

However, for Kazakhstan, the final price tag will depend on more than just Apple's decisions. It will be simultaneously influenced by the tenge exchange rate, shipping costs, taxes, retail margins, and installment terms.