How the US election could affect Kazakhstan

Tengrinews.kz - How might the elections in the United States impact the economic situation in Kazakhstan and its foreign policy priorities? Will Donald Trump return to power? What are Kamala Harris's chances of success? A correspondent from Tengrinews.kz discussed these topics with Kazakhstani political scientists.

On November 5, the United States will hold presidential elections, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as the main candidates. This will be the 60th presidential election in U.S. history, in which the 47th president of the country will be elected.

Oil

According to political analyst Gaziz Abishev, Kazakhstan is "off the sensitive radar of any American administration."

"We currently do not play a key role in global geopolitics, and our influence may only be indirect. If Donald Trump wins, he will increase support for Israel in pressuring Iran by using methods such as boosting U.S. oil production and agreements with Saudi Arabia to raise output," he said.

The expert noted that this could lead to a decline in oil prices on global markets, which may also affect Kazakhstan.

"We are dependent on the sale of hydrocarbons, and if that changes, it will become more difficult for us. Trump will strengthen the party that exerts the most significant economic pressure on China, and a slowdown in economic activity in the PRC could negatively impact Kazakhstan. Although Trump claims he will quickly end the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions pressure on Russia is unlikely to end quickly," noted Gaziz Abishev.

Photo: depositphotos.com

The expert believes that a reduction in pressure on Russia could positively influence Kazakhstan's economy.

"Even now, Deputy Prime Minister Nurlan Baibazarov says that the budget shortfall in taxes is related to decreased economic activity due to the geopolitical crisis surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. A reduction in pressure on the EU and economic growth in Russia could support economic growth in Kazakhstan. However, the crisis in China and falling oil prices due to overproduction in the Middle East may have a more serious impact than the consequences of the crisis in Russia," he suggests.

In the event of Kamala Harris's victory, whose party supports Ukraine, the process will be quite complicated, the political analyst remarked. The parties may reach an agreement, but "Ukraine will not withstand this war."

“They (Harris's team - ed.) are more supportive of renewable energy. And maybe they won’t aggressively promote oil extraction in the United States, but that doesn’t rule out Saudi Arabia increasing production to punish its OPEC+ partners for overproduction and try to reclaim certain markets,” said the political observer.

Photo: depositphotos.com/actionsports

In turn, financial analyst Arman Beisembayev believes that if Trump wins, he will withdraw from the climate agenda and allow drilling for oil “for everyone and everywhere.”

“This means that drilling activity in the U.S. will rise again, including in Alaska and on the Arctic shelf, leading to an increase in oil supplies to the global market and complete the climate agenda,” he stated.

According to the expert, all of this could destabilize the oil market and lead to a drop in prices for “black gold.”

Harris or Trump

According to Gaziz Abishev, Trump's more active policy could pose a macroeconomic threat to Kazakhstan compared to Kamala Harris's approach.

"However, at this moment, it is impossible to accurately predict Trump's actions, as he made many promises during his first term: he imposed tariffs on China, struck General Soleimani, recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and so on. It is unclear how decisive Harris's administration will be," the political observer said.

Photo: depositphotos.com/thenews2.com

He noted that Harris will be at the intersection of interests of major political clans within the Democratic Party, such as the Obama Group or the Clintons Group.

"It depends on what cabinet she forms, who she is offered. It will depend on what her government looks like and what plans they have. A lot depends on that, on the balances and arrangements within the U.S. administration. I think that right now, Harris does not have a clear vision of what detailed geopolitical policy she will pursue," Abishev shared his opinion.

Azamat Baigaliyev, director of the Eurasian Integration Institute, believes that contrary to established stereotypes, the quality and vectors of management decisions in the U.S. do not change drastically with the arrival of a new president.

"For example, after Biden's victory, most of Trump's migration and economic decisions remained in place, and the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan initiated by the Republicans was completed. Trump was unable to revise the healthcare reform (Obamacare) due to resistance from the Democrats," the expert recalled.

Photo: depositphotos.com/gints.ivuskans

According to Baigaliyev, there is no fundamental difference for Kazakhstan regarding who will occupy the Oval Office in the coming months—Harris or Trump.

"In any case, bilateral relations will remain at a high partnership level. If Trump wins, he shouldn't be expected to propose any extraordinary foreign policy initiatives regarding our region. Firstly, his entire electoral agenda is focused on addressing domestic socio-economic issues. Secondly, on the foreign track, he will primarily be expected to be personally involved in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and negotiating with China," he said.

The expert reminded that President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held personal negotiations with both Trump and Biden.

Photo by Akorda press service

"With both, judging by joint statements and outcomes, the Kazakh leader has established constructive relationships. It is no coincidence that last year, for the first time in history, multilateral talks in the Central Asia + U.S. format took place in New York, where Kazakhstan received special attention," Baigaliyev noted.

Photo by Akorda press service

Political scientist and director of the public foundation "Kemel Arna," Zamir Karazhanov, believes that U.S. relations with other countries under Trump can be characterized by the phrase: "Either worse or nothing."

"During Trump's presidency, the U.S. did not offer significant foreign policy initiatives to address global problems. For example, his meeting with the North Korean leader did not lead to concrete agreements, which illustrates his approach of lacking active promotion of initiatives to improve the international situation and relations with other countries," the expert argues.

According to the political scientist, if Trump wins, a deterioration in relations between Kazakhstan and the U.S. is not expected. However, significant progress should not be anticipated either.

"If Trump wins, Kazakhstan and the U.S. are likely to experience at least four years of 'silence' in bilateral relations without significant development. This does not matter for Astana, as Kazakhstan is beginning to shape its own 'comfort zone' in foreign policy while facing geopolitical turbulence," Karazhanov stated.

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Additionally, the political scientist noted that in recent years, Astana has adjusted its priorities, focusing on strengthening relations with Central Asian countries, Azerbaijan, and Turkey within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

"The main focus is on developing trade and economic ties and regional cooperation, taking measures to enhance security. This is aimed at sustainable development and stabilizing the situation in the surrounding region. It is important to avoid getting involved in global conflicts to preserve independence and concentrate on internal development. This will ensure the well-being of Kazakhstan amid growing geopolitical tensions in the world," he explained.

According to financial analyst Arman Beisembayev, the United States has always had quite good relations with Kazakhstan.

"It depends on how Trump will view Kazakhstan. It seems he has no particular grievances against us. Naturally, if the U.S. continues to move towards isolation, their investments are likely to decrease as well," the analyst believes.

The expert thinks that the European Union is already preparing for the possible return of Donald Trump to power.

"It is expected that his policy will involve applying pressure on Europe. Trump previously stated that the costs of maintaining NATO would fully transferred to Europe. This means that its defense will be paid for by the Europeans themselves from their own pockets. This is Trump's formula that he intends to implement as soon as he comes to power," he said.

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According to Beisembayev, Kamala Harris has a more globalist approach.

"Her approach suggests active U.S. involvement in world affairs and maintaining the country's role that America is 'everywhere and always.' Trump, however, leans towards isolationist policy. He believes that issues should be solved by Europeans themselves, not the U.S. In one of his campaign speeches, Trump even said that if Putin wants to take Europe, he wouldn’t stand in his way," he noted.

Moreover, Trump promotes a trend toward deglobalization and dismantling the global order previously supported by the U.S.

"No one expects his rhetoric to change. Trump will continue to wield his hammer in a glass house, and continue to destroy everything. If America once was the dominant power in the world, that will likely change under Trump," the analyst suggests.

Photo: depositphotos.com/yalcinsonat1

In Beisembayev’s view, the 2024 U.S. presidential election will be entirely predictable, with no surprises.

"Everyone expects that Trump will likely become president, as the U.S. is still not ready for a female president. However, if Harris wins, it won’t be a shock to either side. What’s more important is what will happen after the election," the expert concluded.