Dollar exchange rate is falling: National Bank explains reasons behind the tenge’s strengthening

Tengrinews.kz — Why does the dollar exchange rate continue to fall in Kazakhstan? This question was put to National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov.

“What is happening with the dollar? Why does the exchange rate keep falling and falling, instead of rising? And how will this affect citizens?” journalists asked Suleimenov on the sidelines of the Mazhilis.

The head of the National Bank replied that the national currency is strengthening.

“When the exchange rate rises, of course we do not like it. And when it falls, do we not like it either? Well, the tenge is strengthening. You could probably put it that way. But this is basic economics. Kazakhstan’s main export item, oil, which accounts for more than 50 percent of our country’s export revenue, is rising in price. Volumes have remained the same, but the price is rising, so the amount of export revenue in our economy and offered on our foreign exchange market is also increasing. Accordingly, the price per unit, that is, the dollar exchange rate, will fall,” the National Bank chief explained.

Journalists noted that Kazakhstanis who invested in dollars would in that case be losing money. They also suggested that a similar situation could apply to the National Fund, whose assets are converted into dollars.

“The National Fund cannot either lose or not lose, because we always look only at the foreign currency portion of the National Fund. It is denominated in dollars, and it is not recalculated into tenge. As for Kazakhstanis, I always say that we cannot give investment advice or recommendations on whether to keep savings in one currency or another. The only thing we can say is that the Kazakh tenge has proven its resilience,” Timur Suleimenov said.

The head of the National Bank stressed that the tenge showed a “very high return” last year. Referring to certain international ratings, he said that Kazakhstan’s national currency is one of the “most attractive currencies right now.”

“That is, the risk-to-return ratio in Kazakhstan is currently one of the best in the world. That is why it attracts investment,” Suleimenov said.

Earlier, the National Bank explained that the current dynamics of the tenge exchange rate reflect the continued strengthening of the national currency observed since the beginning of 2026. In February, this trend became noticeably stronger. According to the National Bank, the strengthening is linked to objective market factors rather than a short-term reaction to individual external events.

In particular, one of the reasons was a decrease in demand for foreign currency on the domestic market. This situation is typical at the beginning of the year, when business and investment activity declines because budget funds have not yet begun to be actively spent.