Analysts in Kazakhstan forecast dollar exchange rate for September

Tengrinews.kz - Analysts have issued a forecast for the dollar exchange rate in September, citing the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK).

According to experts, the tenge is expected to weaken amid instability in the foreign exchange and commodity markets, growing demand for foreign currency, and a decrease in the positive balance of foreign trade.

“By early September, the USD/KZT rate is projected to reach 541.7 tenge per dollar, and in a year it is expected to stand at 573.0 tenge per dollar,” analysts noted.

Earlier expectations had been more optimistic — 523.4 tenge per dollar by September and 548.5 tenge per dollar in a year.

The revision of exchange rate expectations also coincided with a worsening perception of inflationary risks.

“In August, annual inflation expectations rose to 11.3% from 10.4% a month earlier, reflecting concerns about accelerating price growth amid higher tax burdens, the transfer of increased business costs (transport, logistics, raw materials) to end consumers, and the inevitable subsequent rise in import prices due to the weakening tenge,” the report stated.

According to analysts, in order to curb inflation, the regulator will likely maintain a tight monetary policy.

“The forecast for the base rate over the next year has been revised upward to 15.25% from the previous 14.75%. As a result, the real interest rate could reach 4.9% compared to the current 4.7%,” the statement said.

At the same time, experts see no urgent need to raise the base rate further.

It is worth noting that today, August 11, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 542 tenge during daytime trading on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE).