National Bank keeps base rate unchanged

Tengrinews.kz — On Friday, January 23, the National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to keep the base rate unchanged. It remains at 18 percent per annum, with a corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

According to the National Bank, the base rate is highly likely to remain at its current level until the end of the first half of 2026.

What is the base rate

The base rate is the main instrument of the National Bank’s monetary policy. It reflects the interest rate at which banks can borrow funds and largely determines interest rates on loans and deposits for households and businesses.

The National Bank estimates that changes in the base rate begin to have a noticeable impact on inflation with a lag of 12 to 18 months. In the short term, the effect of rate changes is weaker.

How the base rate changed in 2025

The first base rate meeting in 2025 took place on January 17, when the rate was kept unchanged at 15.25 percent.

On March 7, the regulator raised the rate to 16.5 percent, citing updated inflation and economic growth forecasts.

On April 11, the National Bank again kept the rate at 16.5 percent, taking into account the inflation outlook and balance of risks.
The same decision was made on June 5 and in August.

On October 10, the base rate was raised to 18 percent.
On November 28, 2025, the National Bank once again kept the rate at 18 percent, after which the US dollar sharply weakened in trading.

How the base rate works

Changes in the base rate affect inflation through money market interest rates and the exchange rate. When the base rate is increased, money becomes more expensive: loan and borrowing rates rise. As a result, businesses and households spend less and save more, slowing down price growth and restraining inflation.

How the base rate affects the tenge

When the National Bank lowers the base rate, money becomes cheaper. In the short term, this usually leads to a weaker tenge, as market participants expect depreciation and act against the national currency. In the long term, lower inflation may instead support a stronger tenge.

How often the rate is reviewed

Decisions on the base rate are made by the National Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. Meetings are held eight times a year according to a fixed schedule.

The next base rate decision will be announced on March 6.