Exchange rate will reach 142-144 tenge for US dollar in 2011 18 июня 2011, 15:09
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High oil and metals prices, improvement of marcoeconomic indicators in Kazakhstan, strengthening of Russian ruble against dollar and stabilization of the situation in world's economy facilitate strengthening of the Kazakh national currency Tenge against US Dollar, Tengrinews.kz reports citing BTA Analitika research and analysis company.
“Considering the National Bank's policy of amortizing sharp fluctuation of exchange rates, it can be assumed that this year the exchange rate will reach 142-144 tenge for 1 US dollar,” said BTA Analitika expert Rustam Deberdeyev.
Starting from the beginning of the year tenge has been slowly strengthening against dollar; it has strengthened 1.4 percent so far. Any stronger strengthening of tenge against dollar was retained by policy of the National Bank that bought around $6.5-7 billion in the beginning of the year to prevent excessive strengthening of tenge.
The main reasons behind the strengthening of tenge are favorable prices on main Kazakh export goods, such as oil, nonferrous metals and grain, and positive trends in the foreign economic activities of the country. According to Kazakhstan National Bank, surplus of current accounts in 2010 made $4.32 billion versus the deficiency of $4.36 billion in 2009.
Analysts note that coordinated exchange rate policies between the Customs Union member-countries Kazakhstan and Russia is an important aspect of the exchange rate policy. Russian ruble has strengthened against dollar by almost 10% from the beginning of the year, while tenge grew only by less than 1.5%.
“Considering high correlation between the currencies of Kazakhstan and Russia, we assume that the Kazakh currency will be moving in the same direction as Russian ruble,” Deberdeyev said.
At the same time experts say that high extent of risks still remain in the global economy creating a high level of uncertainty and a possibility of significant deviations from the forecasts.