Kazakhstan political experts comment on Yertysbayev's new appointment05 апреля 2013, 16:47
Kazakhstan political experts have shared their opinions on the appointment of Yermukhamet Yertysbayev Kazakhstan as ambassador to Georgia with Tengrinews.kz.
Most of the experts agree that the position of the Ambassador to Georgia itself is not demanding enough to be the prime cause of the transfer, as the relations between Astana and Tbilisi are stable. They also agree that Yertysbayev's previous position of Nazarbayev's close Advisor and his new position of the Ambassador are equivalent.
Yermukhamet Yertysbayev. Photo by Yaroslav Radlovskiy©
Political expert Marat Shibutov says that Yertysbayev’s appointment has been discussed for a long time. This also explains the long silence of the President’s Advisor in the last several months.
The expert believes that being an ambassador to Georgia is not that bad of an option for Yertysbayev in this period of low demand for his services. However, in general Shibutov considers the new appointment a demotion. He believes that reforms in the ideological block in the country's top management are main reason behind the transfer to the new job. And it looks like Yertysbayev did not fit into the new concept.
Political expert Marat Shibutov. Photo by Yaroslav Radlovskiy©
Expert of the Institute of National Research Andrey Chebotarev believes that the new appointment is a good opportunity for Yertysbayev to continue his political career and expand his potential as one of the President’s representatives. “He has been working as an advisor for a long time and, apparently, he needs to revive his positions in the diplomatic sector to put a spin on his work,” Chebotarev said. However, he does not deny that the previous position and staying close to the President gave a better status and a lot of opportunities to Yertysbayev.
Speaking of the reasons, Chebotarev says that somebody else must have become of more demand for President Nazarbayev. He suggests that the position of the President’s Advisor could be filled in by one of the henchmen of Karim Massimov or Marat Tazhin.
Expert of the Institute of National Research Andrey Chebotarev. Photo by Yaroslav Radlovskiy©
“The new position will be beneficial for him and there is nothing bad about it,” political expert Dossym Satpayev says. He believes that Yertysbayev has “overstayed” as the President’s advisor, as he has been there since 1990s. Speaking of the reasons of the transfer, the expert points out that Yertysbayev’s positions inside the elite has been weakening lately. According to Satpayev, it is probably related to the general weakening of the part of the elite that Yertysbayev is close with.
According to Satpayev, the second possible cause of the shift is that over the last two years Yertysbayev has made many resonant statements, in particular regarding the possible successors of President Nazarbayev. Kazakhstan political elite could not have liked it. “Such transfer can hardly be considered a sharp demotion if for no other reason than because the new political position of Yertysbayev is better than a political nonexistence,” Satpayev says, adding that positions of the ambassadors are frequently viewed by Kazakhstan politicians as a transit zones used to circle back into power later.
Political expert Dossym Satpayev. Photo by Yaroslav Radlovskiy©
Political expert of the Institute of Political Solutions Maksim Kaznacheyev considers the positions of the ambassador and the President’s advisor practically equal from the formal point of view. But speaking of the informal side of the issue, he points out the remoteness from the President and loss of a range of leverages over the country’s ideological and internal policies that Yertysbayev used to be responsible for. Kaznacheyev views that move as taking Yertysbayev to a political periphery.
The expert does not rule out that Yertysbayev could be just tired of being the President’s advisor and the new position being a place of rest for him from the domestic affairs. The second possible reason, according to Kaznacheyev, is that President Nazarbayev is attempting to attract new experts and advisors into the domestic policies and ideological projects. “It is possible that in the light of the latest tasks set by the President he just needs new generators of the internal political initiatives,” the expert said.
Political expert of the Institute of Political Solutions Maksim Kaznacheyev. Photo by Yaroslav Radlovskiy©
The experts hesitate to name any candidates for the position of the President’s Advisor. But versions of Yertysbayev’s possible replacements are widely discussed on the Internet. Galym Baituk from Nazarbayev Center writes in his Twitter that well-known political expert Yerlan Karin is an expected candidate for the position.
President of the Republic-Region-Development public fund Galym Baituk
Murat Laumulin from Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies has a totally different opinion. He believes that the position of the President’s advisor has run out of stream. The times have changes and the President does not need advisors any more. “I think that this is a promotion for Yertysbayev. Georgia is a complicated and shaky sector,” Laumulin said. He believes that Yertysbayev will work on improvement of Georgia’s relations with the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States).
Political expert Murat Laumulin. Photo by Yaroslav Radlovskiy©
By Vladimir Prokopenko