Central Asia is entering instability age24 august 2012, 20:00
Central Asia is entering a period of instability, political expert Secretary of Nur Otan party Yerlan Karin told Tengrinews.kz.
“I think Central Asia is entering a zone of political turbulence, i.e. we’ll be seeing some crisis events, surge of terrorism and extremism. It is like entering a period of instability to some extent. This is true also for the situation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The latest cases of extremist activity in Kazakhstan can serve an example of it as well. Clearly, Central Asia in the whole is entering some kind of an instability period,” Karin said.
However, according to the expert, the surge in the crisis-like tendencies should not be linked to activity of any one geopolitical player, like the United States, China or Russia. “The situation in the region is becoming more complicated not because of wicked designs of any on the geopolitical power, but because there are local hotbeds of instability,” he said.
Speaking of the main sources of the instability Karin said: “First of all its sprouts from the deteriorating relations between Central Asian countries themselves, i.e. terrorism and extremism threat complicated by domestic political problems. Aggravation of the domestic political problems diverts the attention of special services and military forces from performing their direct functions of protecting from threats to national and regional security,” Karin explained.
He also pointed out that the complicated period in the region is not only related to withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan and activation of terrorists. The main cluster of the problems is related to uncertainty in domestic political prospects in Central Asian countries themselves. “The countries of the region are entering a certain cycle: presidential elections in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are scheduled for 2013. It is obvious that the current leaders will win the elections anyway, but it is also clear that this will be the last cycle for both of these leaders. And anyway the issue of changing the political elites will be on agenda, which brings certain nervousness and uncertainty into the political prospects. It brings disorientation and shifting of focuses in the internal and external policies,” the political expert said.
He stressed that Kazakhstan should strengthen its positions: “Kazakhstan should fortify its southern borders, because securing this region is a crucial factor in ensuring Kazakhstan’s national security. That’s why major efforts towards ensuring national security have to be concentrated first of all in this region,” Karin stressed.