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Experts forecast new wave of crisis in Kazakhstan in early 2012

30 september 2011, 13:00
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Experts are forecasting the next economic crisis in Kazakhstan in the beginning of 2012, Tengrinews.kz reports citing the results of the expert poll called Evaluation of possibility of the new crisis wave and stableness of Kazakhstan economy held by the Institute of Political Solutions (IPS).

One third of the respondents forecasted the crisis in 2012. 70 percent replied that Kazakhstan is ready to face the new economic challenges, 17 percent of experts are less optimistic. According to 27 percent of respondents, small and medium business will be effected by the crisis the most. 22 percent think that processing industry will face the most economic challenges.

Director of Analytical Department of Greenwich Capital Management Bauyrzhan Tulepov talked about imbalances of Kazakhstan's economy that may cause the crisis in the country. One of such factors is excessive money supply. “There is a vicious circle. Excessive money supply is linked to inflation growth. National Bank strengthens national currency. National currency boosts involvement of foreign financing,” he explained.

Among other reasons for the coming crisis Tulepov noted “over-loaning of economy” and fundamental weakness of the banking sector. “There is lots of money in the economy, but there is no one to give it to,” the expert said.

Earlier professor of New York University Nouriel Roubini made a statement on the possibility of a new wave of the global financial crisis in 2012. The expert talked about 60 percent possibility that the majority of developed countries will face the second economic recession.

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