Kazakhstan budget may lose $5 bln in revenues06 march 2015, 18:51
If oil prices remain at $50 per barrel, the state budget revenues of Kazakhstan will be nearly one trillion tenge short of target in 2015. The Minister of National Economy of Kazakhstan Yerbolat Dossayev spoke about the baseline scenario for global oil prices of $50 per barrel in 2015-2017 and $60 per barrel in 2018-2019, Tengrinews reports.
"Amid the lowered forecasts on GDP and imports, and with the oil prices at $50 per barrel in 2015, the state budget revenues (excluding transfers from the National Fund) are expected to be at 3.2 trillion tenge ($17.4 billion), which is 939.6 billion tenge ($5.1 billion) short of the approved target amount," he said.
The GDP growth in 2015, according to the Minister, is expected to make 1.5 percent (down from November's forecasted 3.3 percentage points), 2.2 percent in 2016 (down by 3.1 percentage points), 3.3 percent in 2017 (down by 3.4 percentage points), 3.6 percent in 2018 (down by 2.2 percentage points), and 4.1 percent in 2019 (down by 2.4 percentage points).
"Based on this, the nominal GDP in 2015 is expected to reach 41.3 trillion tenge ($223.08 billion), which is 2.4 trillion tenge ($13 billion) below the November adjustment, with a gradual increase to 59.9 trillion tenge ($323.3 billion) in 2019. The GDP per capita will increase from $12,800 in 2015 to $17,600 in 2019," he said.
Dossayev said that the industry would shrink by 0.3 percent in 2015. As a result of lower production and industrial exports and slowing investments, growth in the service sector will be reduced to 2.2 percent in 2015, he said.
According to the forecasts of the National Bank, in 2015 the volume of Kazakhstan's exports will fall by 44.7 percent - to $43.6 billion and imports will fall by 21.8 percent - to $34.7 billion. The inflation rate will be kept at bay within the same range as before: between 6 and 8 percent.
Reporting by Altynai Zhumzhumina, writing by Dinara Urazova, editing by Tatyana Kuzmina