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John J. Hardy

John J. Hardy

Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank

Originally from Texas, John Hardy graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with high honors. He has been with Saxo Bank since 2002 in various roles in FX Strategy and Asset Management. Today, John works as Head of FX Strategy. John has developed a broad following from his popular and often quoted daily FX Update column, received by Saxo Bank clients, the press and sales traders. He is a regular guest and commentator on television networks, including CNBC, CNBC Arabia and Bloomberg. Alongside his column and media appearances, John writes regular ad-hoc commentary focusing on the major currencies, central bank policies, macro-economic trends and other developments. John Hardy is available to comment on FX and the major asset classes from a macro perspective.
National Bank of Kazakhstan conducts foreign exchange interventions to stabilize tenge - comments

National Bank of Kazakhstan decided to conduct foreign exchange interventions in order to stabilize the situation on the domestic currency market.

Devaluation of Tenge

The reason the tenge peg was broken is the same reason for any other peg breaking – the reality of the situation simply no longer supported the tenge maintaining its valuation amid collapsing export revenues from weak oil prices, as oil is the lion’s share of Kazakhstan’s exports. When a country like Kazakhstan is significantly dependent on a given basket of exports for its hard currency revenues, it is more useful to think of the country’s currency being de facto pegged to that basket of commodities than to anything else.

Did China just float the yuan? Sort of…

The People’s Bank of China devalued the Chinese yuan overnight by almost 2% and announced a significant liberalisation of the yuan’s exchange rate regime, a move that has roiled currency and asset markets globally

Currency Wars: when Zero is too much

The best policy solution would be to renormalize interest rates and to allow massive debt restructurings from the inevitable pain that this would cause. The downside would be an ugly and deep recession as over-indebted and weak players are allowed to fail. The upside would be the subsequent strong growth phase as capital is allocated appropriately, rather than unjustly to any debtor with a pulse in our crazy twilight world of zero or negative rates. But this solution is politically the most unappetizing possible so it is also the lease likely scenario.