Steen Jakobsen

There is considerable risk that the EU-Turkey refugee deal will collapse in the coming weeks.

Political and economic landscapes in upheaval, voters demanding anything but the status quo. 'emergency' measures have led to stagnation, Wall Street nees to shrink, Main Street to grow, Infrastructure, capex investments key...

Cameron's EU deal is far short of what he promised... This represents formal acceptance of a two-tier Europe... Populists elsewhere already calling for their own referendums... By October, Cameron and Merkel could be history and Le Pen's star shining... 

Strike at the heart of western civilisation represents new phase in IS strategy; Financial markets not prepared for the geopolitical risk to come; Clash of ideologies means it is likely to get worse, before it gets better; Ignorance of major political events can not be allowed to continue.

I'm just back from the US and from attending a major macro conference. Dare I say I met Mr and Mrs Consensus! A quiet unattractive couple

“A drowning man is not troubled by rain” –  Iranian proverb. The proverb summons up why Iran and the US was and is almost desperate to strike a deal to lift Iranian sanctions.  

The collapse of the Berlin Wall continues to be the defining factor in the mass of territory spanning Slovenia to the Urals, but 26 years on, it's time for the region to leave behind adolescence and take its place on the global stage

 As the US economy stutters towards reversal many minds are focused on the implications for the rest of us. But consider this: more often than not major economic shifts originate in Asia and that's why we should should be taking more notice of what's going on in China right now.

 First of all, everybody needs to respect why God gave us two ears and one mouth: it means you listen twice as much as you talk. We are designed to listen more than we talk!

Secondly, everyone needs to be more ambitious. For yourself, your country, your company… talk about what you can do and not what you can’t do.

The banking system overall is meeting stricter and stricter criteria on capital set aside for events like this one – actually a fairly rational move considering that VaR does not fully cover “worst case scenarios”. We already saw the US rolling out stricter capital demand requirements on US banks in 2014: Big US banks must boost capital by $68 billion under new rules.